Dr Craps
The ‘5 Count Craps Strategy’ was initially developed by Dr. Don Catlin, Professor Emeritus of Mathematics at the University of Massachusetts and was later given prominence by Frank Scoblete, a professional craps player.
The 5-Count Strategy is used on random rollers at the craps table to ‘qualify the shooter’ to determine if you’re going to place any bets during his/her roll.
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The strategy is based on the studies that indicate that 57% of shooters will not make it past the 5-Count without tossing a (7), and therefore protects you from losing money on short rolls and Point 7-Outs when the table is choppy or cold.
While there is some merit to their conclusions when you look at ‘mean distributions’ of dice rolls, keep in mind that regardless of whether it is the shooter’s 3rd roll or 23rd roll, they still have a ‘1 in 6’ chance of tossing a (7).
What the strategy does do, is keep you, and your bankroll, longer by not losing money on ‘short roll’ random rollers, and hopefully you’ll still be at the table when the shooter or table heats up.
Keep in mind that no strategy or system can change the house edge (casino advantage) of any bet at the craps tables, the 5-Count Strategy can help you and your bankroll play and stay at the tables longer.
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HOW THE 5 COUNT STRATEGY WORKS
When a new shooter takes the dice…
- Count 1 starts when the shooter throws their first ‘box number’ (4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10). Any other number thrown (2, 3, 11, 12) does not start the count.
- Counts 2, 3 and 4 include any number thrown, including craps numbers.
- Count 5 requires a ‘box number’ to be thrown again (4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10) to qualify.
- Anytime a 7 is thrown, the count starts over.
Let’s take a look at the rolls and count in action;
- Shooter gets the dice and starts his/her rolls.
- ( 3 ) Count = 0– The count doesn’t start until a box number is hit
- (11) Count = 0– The count doesn’t start until a box number is hit
- ( 6 ) Count = 1– A box number was hit so the count starts
- ( 9 ) Count = 2– Any number rolled advances the count on counts 2, 3 and 4
- (12) Count = 3– Any number rolled advances the count
- ( 5 ) Count = 4– Any number rolled advances the count
- ( 3 ) Count = 4– Count #5 requires a box number to be hit
- (11) Count = 4– Count #5 requires a box number to be hit
- ( 9 ) Count = 5– Required box number was hit
- Now you start betting on the shooter. Use the betting system or strategy you’re comfortable with.
- Remember that a (7) rolled at any point during the count would have started the count over again.
There is still a lot of debate as to whether or not this strategy works, but it will keep you at the table longer and increase your chance of being at the table when a hot or advantage shooter gets the dice or the table turns heats up.
Like any strategy, it’s recommended that you practice and experiment with it before ever putting real money on the craps tables.
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